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I said it once but I think I got away with it

June 21, 2007

This has been on my mind ever since I started this blog but somehow I’ve never got to it until now. A Thursday a while back I had two interviews lined up on my radio show. The first was of a member of the NZ Green party and the second was of regular interviewee Jon Eisen (editor of Uncensored magazine). The first interview was my big splash, first time coverage of peak oil intended to bring an IMPORTANT SUBJECT to the attention of my listeners.So I did that and then came Jon. I think the interview was supposed to be about free energy but Jon soon got on to rusbbishing Peakniks for being a bunch of unwitting suckers in a conspiracy to raise oil prices. I was a bit pissed about having my show hijacked and Jon is from New York so we were soon involved in a heated debate at the end of which I ended up saying something along the lines of; so we’ll probably never know whether peak oil is a scam or not but either we it’s going to happen to us.

Jon rounded it off by telling everyone to go to their computer and google ‘abiotic oil’. I myself found several sites, (including Ran’s, so it was definitely worth it!). Of specific interest were the Campaign for an Informed America run by a guy called Dave who had intersting stuff but who kept going off on tangents about a fued he was having with Mike Ruppert, leading me worry a bit about his judgement.

  Far more credible was this site by J F Kenney who explained in great detail that the abiotic oil theory had been developed by the Russians a few decades ago and that the science had gone through a long periof of debate and was now considered to be accepted fact in the Russian scientific community. He also said that they had been drilling for oil very successfully using this theory for some time. My problem with this site was that it was very heavy on the science and I just didn’t have the time to wade through it all.

Now if you mention that you’ve been reading about abiotic oil to peak oilers they’re inclined to laugh at you in the same way that a rationalist will if you admit to believing in god. I’ve seen people’s entire credibility destroyed on peak oil lists with the simple but devastating “…but then he believes in abiotic oil”. Typical of the rebuttals of abiotic oil is this one by Richard Heinberg where he claims that only a small proportion of Russian scientists support the abiotic oil theory, he makes no attempt to explain how he came by this information, nor does he appear to speak Russian (unlike JF Kenney) so I’m kind of concerned about his biases too.

 

  This is all a bit worrying, there seems far too much expectant excitement amongst peak oilers at the prospect of consumer culture and it’s consumers getting what they deserve. Aside from the dubious nature of this excitement it also seems to blind people to other things that are going on.I’ve seen people rattling off lists of all the countries whose oil production is in the process of peaking without the slightest sign of awareness that the odds of that are actually quite small and that the peak refers to a global peak only and that it won’t necessarily coincide with any one country or field’s peak.

Coinciding with this first coincidence however we also have two more peaks. One in world wide natural gas production and another in world wide food production. Yes, that’s right; peak food.

On top of all that it would also appear that the US economy is also being being deliberately driven over a cliff by an apparently blind and incompetent  US administration.

  I don’t claim expertise in any of these specific areas, and I’m open to having my mind changed but I do wonder just how unlikely the coincidences are and I especially wonder why hardly anyone is prepared to say it our loud. The only site I’ve noticed asking questions about what might be behind this is Cryptogon. Peakoilers are kind of scary, sometimes I even find them more scary than peak oil itself.

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